Estimating Dynamic Treatment Effects from Project STAR (Working Paper 36)

This paper considers the analysis of data from randomized trials which offer a sequence of interventions and suffer from a variety of problems in implementation. In experiments that provide treatment in multiple periods (T>1), subjects have up to 2^{T}-1 counterfactual outcomes to be estimated to determine the full sequence of causal effects from the study. Traditional program evaluation and non-experimental estimators are unable to recover parameters of interest to policy makers in this setting, particularly if there is non-ignorable attrition. We examine these issues in the context of Tennessee's highly influential randomized class size study, Project STAR. We demonstrate how a researcher can estimate the full sequence of dynamic treatment effects using a sequential difference in difference strategy that accounts for attrition due to observables using inverse probability weighting M-estimators. These estimates allow us to recover the structural parameters of the small class effects in the underlying education production function and construct dynamic average treatment effects. We present a complete and different picture of the effectiveness of reduced class size and find that accounting for both attrition due to observables and selection due to unobservable is crucial and necessary with data from Project STAR

A cloud-based system for measuring radiation treatment plan similarity

PURPOSE: Radiation therapy is used to treat cancer using carefully designed plans that maximize the radiation dose delivered to the target and minimize damage to healthy tissue, with the dose administered over multiple occasions. Creating treatment plans is a laborious process and presents an obstacle to more frequent replanning, which remains an unsolved problem. However, in between new plans being created, the patient's anatomy can change due to multiple factors including reduction in tumor size and loss of weight, which results in poorer patient outcomes. Cloud computing is a newer technology that is slowly being used for medical applications with promising results. The objective of this work was to design and build a system that could analyze a database of previously created treatment plans, which are stored with their associated anatomical information in studies, to find the one with the most similar anatomy to a new patient. The analyses would be performed in parallel on the cloud to decrease the computation time of finding this plan. METHODS: The system used SlicerRT, a radiation therapy toolkit for the open-source platform 3D Slicer, for its tools to perform the similarity analysis algorithm. Amazon Web Services was used for the cloud instances on which the analyses were performed, as well as for storage of the radiation therapy studies and messaging between the instances and a master local computer. A module was built in SlicerRT to provide the user with an interface to direct the system on the cloud, as well as to perform other related tasks. RESULTS: The cloud-based system out-performed previous methods of conducting the similarity analyses in terms of time, as it analyzed 100 studies in approximately 13 minutes, and produced the same similarity values as those methods. It also scaled up to larger numbers of studies to analyze in the database with a small increase in computation time of just over 2 minutes. CONCLUSION: This system successfully analyzes a large database of radiation therapy studies and finds the one that is most similar to a new patient, which represents a potential step forward in achieving feasible adaptive radiation therapy replanning.